• Chainweasel@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    A decade ago, It was predicted that we would hit 1.5°C between 2050-2060, and even as recently as 2 years ago the prediction had moved forward to between 2030-2040.
    The next decade or two are going to be very… interesting

    • alvvayson@lemmy.world
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      2 years ago

      The IPCC calculations were always criticized for being overly optimistic. Anyone following this debate knew that we would hit 1.5 C sooner rather than later.

      We are definitely going to hit 3 degrees in our lifetime, once the melting tundras release their methane store.

      • Kale@lemmy.zip
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        2 years ago

        Melting tundra releases methane, accelerating the increase in temperature. Rising temperature reduces polar ice, making oceans absorb more heat, accelerating heating. Climate pattern changes cause more frequent and larger wildfires, accelerating heating.

        There are probably processes that work to reduce heating as it increases that I’m not aware of, but there are a lot of positive feedback processes which is concerning.

        I believe the IPCC 1.5C was criticized because it included effects of a carbon sequestering process that hasn’t been invented yet. That’s pretty optimistic.

        • ChickenLadyLovesLife@lemmy.world
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          2 years ago

          There are probably processes that work to reduce heating as it increases

          Nuclear war, for one. In a more naturalistic vein, asteroid strike or massive volcanic eruptions. People worried about climate change just refuse to look on the bright side.

        • Graphine@lemmy.world
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          2 years ago

          Which is why I support the idea of setting up bases on the Moon and/or Mars.

          Everything is accelerating, and nobody gives a fuck to do anything before it’s too late. I hate the argument that NASA doesn’t push its budget to prevent CC or even Space X. Because stopping CC is a global effort on a colossal scale. It’s not going to work until it’s too late. Might as well get off this rock.

          Edit: Very fucking optimistic of you all

    • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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      2 years ago

      Supposedly the new stringent heavy shipping emissions controls are having an impact on the greenhouse effect. Reduction of sulfur dioxide which had a reverse greenhouse effect is warming the oceans up more.

      “Carbon Brief analysis shows that the likely side-effect of the 2020 regulations to cut air pollution from shipping is to increase global temperatures by around 0.05C by 2050. This is equivalent to approximately two additional years of emissions.”

      https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/#%3A~%3Atext=Global+emissions+of+sulphur+dioxide%2Cwarming+coming+from+greenhouse+gases.

      So this may be our first example of the threats of NOT enacting terraforming for climate change will have.

      • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
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        2 years ago

        It proves that creating cloud cover will impact ocean temperature. There are methods of doing this without creating acid rain. Just spray ocean water as a fine mist into the air and you should get some nice fluffy clouds. We have the capability to cover entire oceans in cloud cover to mitigate global warming.

        Obviously this would have some unpredictable impacts on weather patterns, but we’re already dealing with that no matter what we do. We’re at a point where we’re desperate enough to try some crazy schemes like this.

        • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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          2 years ago

          After September 11th and the COVID lockdowns, scientists noted an increase in global surface temperature due to the absence of contrails. So yes, this is actually something we are already doing!

          Sulfur dioxide however is an even more effective reflector of sunlight compared to water vapor. And don’t forget, water vapor is itself a very greenhouse agent that contributes toward planetary heating.

    • ruford1976@lemmy.worldOP
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      2 years ago

      what’s worse is that it’s actually 1.6 C

      it says in the article here

      Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850–1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July.