• jarfil@beehaw.org
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    1 year ago

    Yeah. My guess is:

    Top percentages are the vote results from 2020, where about 8% (I’ve seen sites talking about 7.5%) of black voters voted Republican/Trump in the Presidential elections.

    Bottom percentages seem to be from a poll for the Primaries, meaning:

    • 20% of polled black voters said Trump, 61% said Biden, and the remaining 19% said something else (some other candidate, be it Democrat or Republican)
    • …but, voting in the Primaries, changes state by state whether you can vote to a candidate from a party you’re not registered for, so…
    • 20% of registered/allowed Republican black voters said Trump, 61% of registered/allowed Democrat voters said Biden, the remaining 19% were either not registered to vote in the Primaries, or registered with a different party, or chose a different candidate.

    Given that in 2020 Trump got 46.8% votes, a 20% of that would be, around 9.3%.

    That in turn, could mean:

    • Trump would be “killing it” among black voters… by going from 8% to 9.3%
    • The Republican black voters have gone from 17% to 20%
    • The total voters for a Republican president have gone from 46.8% to… anywhere between 39.8% and 54.4%… and 117% ⁉️

    Or… a mix of all the above, which gives no information at all 😆