June 13 (Reuters) - Donald Trump faces a formidable task defending against charges that he illegally kept top-secret documents upon leaving the White House in 2021, according to legal experts, who say neither the law nor the facts appear to be on his side.
National security law experts were struck by the breadth of evidence in the indictment which includes documents, photos, text messages, audio and witness statements. They said this made a strong case for prosecutors’ allegation that Trump illegally took the documents and then tried to cover it up.
“The details are pretty shocking in terms of the carelessness with which these documents were handled, and the concerted effort to keep them out of the hands of the FBI,” said Elizabeth Goitein, a national security law expert at the Brennan Center for Justice.
I follow a lot of legal content and work in a legal field, but I am not a lawyer and this is just an opinion from the outside:
Trump has 2 wildcard advantages that make the outcome hard to predict.
1: this is being presided over by a judge who has shown incredible favorable bias towards him. Even with the circuit laser eyed on the case breathing down her neck to make sure she plays fair ball, there are simply a ton of areas where she can fuck the prosecution over and the circuit can’t do shit. This is the structural nature of federal court. The only thing holding this back from happening is that it would cause such a massive national shit show her life might legitimately be in danger if she did this. (I don’t not advocate violence In any way. But that kind of backlash would not surprise me or feel karmically unjust)
2: it only takes 1 juror. 1 trump fanatic to lie smoothly through jury selection, and then sink all charges by folding their arms. Now this feels unlikely just because the venn diagram overlap between “can make plans, lie smoothly, and stick to their guns through social pressure” and “Miami trump supporter” is very narrow. But it can still happen.
Other than this? Well intent, with someone like trump, who lies constantly for no reason about everything and doesn’t talk to or listen to his lawyers, is actually a pain in the ass to prove. That being said, the evidenciary outline the case opened with indicates that they have genuinely strong evidence to prove intent, so I think he’s sunk on this, especially when you consider he couldn’t really get new lawyers in time for the trial start.
It’s incredibly important to mention whenever discussing this: if he were literally any other person on earth he wouldn’t be treated so nicely: skipped mugshot, no bail, speedy trial, etc. And he would absolutely go away for 20 to life. I say this as a professional, not a partisan.
My prediction-the judge will exclude bits and pieces of the best evidence, leaving a pretty hollow case with reasonable doubt that only covicts on a few lesser charges. Trump will post TOTALLY EXHONERATED
The problem for Trump is that even the lesser charges come with prison terms of up to 5 years. If he gets a “light sentence,” he could still be required to spend two years in prison. This isn’t something that he could handle easily.
I’m waiting to see if the Feds manage to get a change in which judge handles the case. I think they have a decent shot at it. If they get a sane judge in charge, then Trump is sunk.