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Cake day: July 21st, 2024

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  • They are already in parliament and will gain votes but they will not govern, that’s pretty much guaranteed. We will get a conservative-led government though, a little to the right of Merkel. Most probably a conservative/social democratic coalition (think Mitt Romney Republicans with Biden Democrats) or a less likely less stable conservative/green coalition (think Mitt Romney Republicans with AOC Democrats).

    The new government will be pro Ukraine (with the conservatives and greens extremely so, with the social-democrats a little hesitant but mainly, too) but also pro-Israel (with the greens more hesitant). All parties involved are pro European integration.

    To be honest, foreign policies will not change much except for the European Chat Control legislation. While the current German government is strongly against it, Social Democrats are somewhere between indifferent and in favor, conservatives are strongly in favor and while Greens are against it, I can see them agreeing to a bad compromise with the conservatives.